Thursday, April 10, 2008

Economy


India is the 2nd largest country in the world, measured by population and arable land. When measured in USD exchange-rate terms, it is the 10th largest in the world, with a GDP which recently crossed US $1.0 trillion (2007). In terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) it ranks 3rd in the world. The accelerated rate of growth of around 8% to 9% (over the past 5 years) that it has shown, puts it on to a trajectory which might see it rise from the 10th largest to the 3rd largest economy in the world ( in US Dollar terms not PPP) by 2025, just behind US and China.
In terms of growth it is the second fastest growing major economy in the world. GDP grew at 9.4% for the fiscal year 2006–2007. The world has woken up to the fact that the Indian Economy will now a force to contend with. In the 1970's and 80's when my generation studied its economics and when we first started working we were mentally reconciled to living in an Economy which was fated to grow at " the Hindu rate of growth". A pejorative term for the growth rate of 3.5% which India was destined never to grow out of, hemmed in as it was by "a vicous circle of poverty". Low growth leading to low savings and therefore low capital deployment leading to low growth ad infinitum.
But in the early 1990's the Economy was compelled by circumstances to reform. And now more than a decade later, it has finally reaped the benefits of over a decade of reluctant reforms. There is increasing consensus now that the Indian and Chinese economies will be the world's growth engines in the 21st Century, replacing the US which has dominated the world economy for the last 50 years. Witness some of the following changes that have altered the Indian economic landscape so dramatically in the past 15 years.
The economy has averaged a growth of 6% per annum since 1990, reducing poverty by 10% points in the process. Industry is no longer a State monopoly. Almost all sectors have been opened up to the private sector. Import licensing has been abolished. Duties, which were as high as 400% on some items have been rationalized to internationally acceptable levels. The growth rate has averaged 8.5% over the past five years.These are remarkable achievements for an economy that was tightly protected and controlled for 46 years from 1947 to 1993. What are most noticeable are the intangibles: the feel good factor, the "can do" attitude and the increasing amount of young managers that are turning entrepreneurs.Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been liberalized such that inflows have increased from miserable $200m annually in the beginning of the '90's. India attracted $15.7 billion in FDI in the first 10 months of 2007, double the amount in the same period of 2006 ( yet far below the $74.7 billion China attracted in the whole of 2006). Foreign exchange reserves have climbed rapidly from USD 40 billion in March 2001 to 290 billion now. According to the Reserve Bank of India, the country’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $290.8 billion for the week ended February 8 2008, up 57% from a year earlier. This is striking when we recall that the level was near zero at the beginning of the reforms period, just a decade and a half ago.Indian software exports boom
India's software and services exports have been rising rapidly. IT ,IT-enabled services, Business Process Outsourcing ( BPO) and other administrative support operations are together predicted to grow at 25% pa for the forseeable future.
Software exports now make up 20 % of India's total export revenue, up from 5 % in 1997. Currently, India exports services ( including software) worth more than $56 billion every year whereas its merchandise exports are over $100 billion per annum.IT amd ITES services alone are expected to export USD 40 billion worth in FY '08. Serrvices exports have been growing at an average rate of 28% per annum during the past 5 - 6 years while merchandise exports have maintained a growth rate of 22 % p.a. in this period. According to a paper by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), Indian services exports would be close to $311 billion by 2012 and are expected to overtake the expected level of merchandise exports of $305 billion. The study adds that India’s export of commercial services would cross that of China by 2009. .
As per a Nasscom-McKinsey Study the IT and IT enabled services sector will account for 7 % of India's GDP by March 2008. The contribution of IT-ITES industry to country’s GDP grew from 4.7% of last year, thus providing employment to more than 1.6 million of our youth.

Language


In a country with so much regional variation, where in several cases state boundaries have been drawn on linguistic lines, it is but inevitable that fifteen national languages are recognized by the Indian constitution. These are spoken in over 1600 dialects.
While India's official language is Hindi in the Devnagri script, English continues to be the official working language. Most Indians living in urban and semi-urban towns are multi-lingual. For many in the metro cities of India, English is virtually their first language, and for many more, it is the second language. Sanskrit, one of the oldest languages of the world, is the language in which the great Indian epics and classical literature have been written.Hindi is spoken as a mother tongue by about 40 percent of the population, mainly in the area known as the Hindi belt. It is the official language of the Indian Union and of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh., Haryana and Himachal Pradesh.
Assamese is the state language of Assam and is spoken by nearly 60 percent of the State's population. The origin of this language dates back to the 13th century. Bengali, also developed in the 13th century, is the official state language of West Bengal. It is spoken by nearly 200 million people worldwide, and is used in neighbouring Bangladesh also. Oriya, the state language of Orissa is spoken by nearly 87 percent of its population.
In the south, Kannada is the State language of Karnataka and is spoken by 65 percent of the state's population. Malayalam, spoken in Kerala, is an ancient Dravidian language with it's origin dating thousands of years. Tamil, an ancient Dravidian language at least 2000 years old, is the state language of Tamil Nadu and is spoken by at least 65 million people. Telugu, also a Dravidian language, is spoken by the people of Andhra Pradesh.
Marathi is an Indic language dating back to the 13th century, and is the official language of the western state of Maharashtra. Gujarati, Indic in origin, is the state language of Gujarat and is spoken by 70 percent of the State's population. Konkani, principally based on classical Sanskrit, belongs to the southwestern branch of Indo-Aryan languages and is spoken in the Konkan region covering Goa and parts of the coastal regions of Karnataka, Kerala and Maharashtra.
Urdu is the state language of Jammu and Kashmi. It is also the language used by the majority of Muslims in India. Written in the Persio-Arabic script, it contains many words from Persian. Kashmiri is a language written in both Persio-Arabic and Devnagri script and is spoken by 55 percent of the population of Jammu and Kashmir. Sindhi is spoken by many in the North-west frontier of the Indian sub-continent comprising both India and Pakistan. In Pakistan, the language is written in the Persio-Arabic script, while in India the Devnagri script is used. Punjabi is an Indic language spoken in the state of Punjab. Although based on the Devnagri script, it is written in Gurmukhi, a script created by the Sikh Guru, Angad in the 16th century.

The Geography

The Republic of India, which lies across the Tropic of Cancer, comprises most of the Indian sub-continent. India is, by area, the seventh largest country in the world with the Indian mainland covering an area of 3,287,782 sq.km. From north to south, the country measures 3,214 km and from east to west 2,933 km. India's land frontiers are approximately 15,200 km long and its coastline is about 6,100 km. China, Nepal and Bhutan are India's neighbours on the north-east and Pakistan and Afganistan on the north-west. To the east of India lies Myanmar, while surrounded by India's eastern and north-eastern states is Bangladesh. Eastern India is, as a result, linked to the north-eastern territories by a strip of land that is only about 50 km wide at its narrowest. Below the broad territorial expanse of northern India is peninsular India, with the Arabian Sea to its west and the Bay of Bengal to the east. Just south of peninsular India is Sri Lanka, separated from the mainland of India by Palk Strait and the Gulf of Mannar. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal and Lakshadweep and Minicoy Islands in the Arabian Sea are integral parts of the Indian territory.
India's great landmass is divided into four fairly clear regions: the northern mountain region, the Indo-Gangetic Plain, the desert area and the southern peninsular. The mountain region, which stretches along almost the entire northernmost part of the country, comprises three almost parallel ranges extending over a distance of around 2,400 km. In these mountain ranges are found some of the highest peaks in the world.
The river valleys of the Indus, Ganga and Bramhaputra merge to form the Indo-Gangetic Plain, which extends across Northern India for about 2,400 km, with a width varying from 260 to 350 km. This almost flat plain is amongst the most densely populated areas on earth. The desert region of India comprises the 'great desert' and the 'little desert'. The former extends northwards from the edge of the Rann of Kachchh and covers virtually the whole of the Rajasthan-Sind frontier. The 'little desert' stretches from between Jaisalmer and Jodhpur to a little beyond north Rajasthan.
The Peninsular plateau, separated from the Indo-Gangetic Plain by the Aravalli, Vindhya, Satpura, Maikala and Ajanta mountain ranges, is flanked by the Eastern Ghats and the Western Ghats, the former averaging about 600 metres in height and the latter around 1,000 metres (with certain peaks over 2,000 metres). Joining both Ghats at the southern point of the great plateau are the Nilgiri Hills. The country has many large rivers, the most important of which are the Ganges, Jamuna, Brahmaputra, a stretch of the Indus, Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi, Narmada and Cauvery. All these rivers are navigable in parts.
Climate
India with its varied terrain and climatic conditions can be broadly defined as having four climatic seasons : Winter (December to February), Summer (March to May), South-West Monsoons (June to September) and Post-monsoon season (October to November). The winter months are pleasant throughout India with bright sunny days, except in the mountainous regions of the North where the temperature can fall steeply associated with heavy snowfalls.The summer months are hot in most parts of India. The hill resorts of Himachal Pradesh and Kashmir, the Garhwal and Kumaon hills, Sikkim, West Bengal and the Nilgiri hills gain popularity during the summer holiday season when educational institutions are closed. The south-west monsoon usually breaks around the beginning of June on the west coast and reaches elsewhere later. India receives the major share of its rainfall between June and September. The post-monsoon season is generally the most pleasant time of year throughout the country.Rainfall is very heavy in the north-eastern region, the western slopes of the Western Ghats and parts of the Himalayas, all of which receive over 2,000 mm annually. The eastern part of the peninsula, extending up to the northern plains, receives rainfall varying from 1,000 to 2,000 mm a year, while the area from Western Deccan up to the Punjab plains gets between 100 mm and 500 mm a year. Rajasthan , Kachchh and Ladakh have hardly any rainfall.Vegetation
Forests in the western Himalayan region range from conifers and broad-leaved trees in the temperate zone to silver fir, silver birch and junipers at the highest level of the alpine zone. The temperate zone of the eastern Himalayan region has forests of oaks, laurels, maples and rhododendrons, among other species.
Vegetation of the Assam region in the east is luxuriant with evergreen forests, occasional thick clumps of bamboo and tall grasses. The Gangetic plain is largely under cultivation. The Deccan tableland supports vegetation from scrub to mixed deciduous forests. The Malabar region is rich in forest vegetation. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands have evergreen, mangrove, beach and diluvial forests. Much of the country's flora originated three million years ago and are unique to the sub-continent.The population of India crossed the billion mark at the turn of the millenium. The mammoth census of 2001 is in the process of being compiled. In 1996, the population was 945 million with 73% in rural areas. In terms of population, India is the world's second-largest country, after China. 16% of the world's population lives in India. The average population density is 320 per sq km (in 1996), though it reaches 6,888 per sq km in the larger cities. The population growth rate for the period 1980 - '96 has been 2% p.a., with life expectancy at 63 years (62 for men and 63 for women). Infant mortality has declined from from 139 per 1,000 live births in 1972 to 65. By 1996 41% of married women were using contraceptives. The sex ratio is 93 females to 100 males.